He advances the computer presentation to the next slide (Figure 20). “Here’s an example of a performance measurement review format,” he says. “Just like the sales and operations planning dashboard, shown earlier in the morning, a green, yellow, and red system is employed to show performance at a glance.”

        他將計(jì)算機(jī)演示推進(jìn)到下一張幻燈片（圖20）。他說(shuō)：“這是一個(gè)績(jī)效衡量審查格式的例子。”“就像早上早些時(shí)候顯示的銷(xiāo)售和運(yùn)營(yíng)計(jì)劃儀表盤(pán)一樣，使用綠色、黃色和紅色系統(tǒng)來(lái)一目了然地顯示績(jī)效?！?/p>

        Nolan continues to explore the supply review subprocess. He tells the group that the performance review is followed by a review of the newly updated demand plan, or request for product. The purpose of this review is to determine whether the supply side of the business can support the changes in the demand plan and still maintain current resources and projected costs. A simulation of capacity, called rough-cut capacity planning, is commonly used to determine Feasibility.

        諾蘭繼續(xù)探索供應(yīng)審查子流程。他告訴小組，績(jī)效評(píng)估之后是對(duì)最新更新的需求計(jì)劃或產(chǎn)品需求的評(píng)估。本次審查的目的是確定企業(yè)的供應(yīng)側(cè)是否能夠支持需求計(jì)劃的變更，并仍然保持現(xiàn)有資源和預(yù)計(jì)成本。產(chǎn)能模擬通常被稱(chēng)為粗略產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃，用于確定可行性。

        Nolan is quick to point out that rough-cut capacity planning is different from detailed capacity planning. Rough-cut capacity planning is known as a “first cut” at attempting to answer some questions: Do we have a reasonable chance to support the demand plan? Do we have sufficient resources to support the plan? Are our resources “sized” correctly? If the answer to any of these questions is no, the supply team is responsible for taking action or making recommendations to take action to solve the out-of-balance condition.

        諾蘭很快指出，粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃不同于詳細(xì)的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃。在試圖回答一些問(wèn)題時(shí)，粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃被稱(chēng)為“第一次削減”：我們是否有合理的機(jī)會(huì)支持需求計(jì)劃？我們有足夠的資源支持這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃嗎？我們的資源“規(guī)?！笔欠裾_？如果這些問(wèn)題的答案為“否”，則供應(yīng)團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)采取行動(dòng)或提出建議，采取行動(dòng)解決失衡狀況。

        “In essence, rough-cut capacity planning is a ‘what if’ simulation that tests whether you can commit to support the new demand plan without changing one of the knobs we talked about before,” Nolan says.

        諾蘭說(shuō)：“本質(zhì)上，粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃是一個(gè)假設(shè)模擬，它測(cè)試你是否可以承諾支持新的需求計(jì)劃，而不改變我們之前討論過(guò)的一個(gè)旋鈕。”

        “When you use the term rough-cut capacity planning, are suppliers included in the simulation?” Anita Cooper, the purchasing manager, asks. Nolan asks the group to turn to page 47 in their notebooks, which provides more details about rough-cut capacity planning. He explains that it is imperative to have the ability to perform multiple simulations quickly and easily. There are usually multiple planning options, and it is frequently desirable to test more than one production/supply plan alternative against the demand request for product. Another principle of rough-cut capacity planning is the simulation of key resources only. “Not all resources are simulated,” Nolan says. “Just the ones that are likely to cause problems.”

        “使用“粗略產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃”一詞時(shí)，模擬中是否包括供應(yīng)商？”采購(gòu)經(jīng)理安妮塔·庫(kù)珀問(wèn)道。諾蘭要求小組翻到他們筆記本中的第47頁(yè)，該頁(yè)提供了關(guān)于粗略產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃的更多細(xì)節(jié)。他解釋說(shuō)，必須具備快速、輕松地執(zhí)行多個(gè)模擬的能力。通常有多個(gè)計(jì)劃選項(xiàng)，通常需要針對(duì)產(chǎn)品的需求請(qǐng)求測(cè)試多個(gè)生產(chǎn)/供應(yīng)計(jì)劃備選方案。粗略產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃的另一個(gè)原則是只模擬關(guān)鍵資源?！安⒉皇撬械馁Y源都是模擬的，”諾蘭說(shuō)。“只有那些可能引起問(wèn)題的人?！?/p>

        He tells the group that key resources typically are bottlenecks or constraints. They may be resources that are difficult or expensive to change. He goes on to list typical categories of key resources: skills, materials, engineering, money, or any other item that may be a constraint in supporting the new demand request. “And, yes, Susan,” Nolan says, “they may include key suppliers as well as internal resources. Additionally, the key constraints may actually be key materials. These can be simulated as well as capacity.”

        他告訴小組關(guān)鍵資源通常是瓶頸或約束。它們可能是難以改變或代價(jià)高昂的資源。他接著列出了關(guān)鍵資源的典型類(lèi)別：技能、材料、工程、資金，或任何其他在支持新需求請(qǐng)求方面可能受到限制的項(xiàng)目?！笆堑?，蘇珊，”諾蘭說(shuō)，“他們可能包括關(guān)鍵供應(yīng)商和內(nèi)部資源。此外，關(guān)鍵約束實(shí)際上可能是關(guān)鍵材料。這些可以模擬，也可以模擬容量?！?/p>

        Nolan explains that the objective is to first identify any constraints so that alternative approaches can be developed to support the demand. It would be unusual to find that all resources are constraints. Depending upon the volume and the product mix, it is typical to find a limited number of constraints during any particular period in time.

        諾蘭解釋說(shuō)，目標(biāo)是首先確定任何的限制條件，以便開(kāi)發(fā)替代方法來(lái)支持需求。很難發(fā)現(xiàn)所有資源都是約束條件。根據(jù)產(chǎn)量和產(chǎn)品組合，通常在任何特定時(shí)間段內(nèi)找到有限數(shù)量的限制條件。

        “Remember,” Nolan says, “in a demand-driven organization with the objective to meet customers’ expectations all the time, you should be predisposed to find a way to say yes to the new demand request for product. If it costs more to do so, the implications of supporting the plan should surface as a management issue in the sales and operations planning process. The cost of not meeting marketplace expectations may ultimately be far greater than the added cost to manufacturing or engineering.”

        “記住，”諾蘭說(shuō)，“在一個(gè)以滿足客戶期望為目標(biāo)的需求驅(qū)動(dòng)型組織中，你應(yīng)該傾向于找到一種方法來(lái)對(duì)產(chǎn)品的新需求請(qǐng)求表示同意。如果這樣做的成本更高，支持計(jì)劃的影響應(yīng)該在銷(xiāo)售和運(yùn)營(yíng)計(jì)劃過(guò)程中作為管理問(wèn)題顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。不滿足市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的成本最終可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于制造或工程的附加成本?！?/p>

        Susan raises her hand. “If this is only rough-cut capacity planning, when is more detailed capacity planning performed?” Nolan tells the group the detailed capacity planning is usually performed as part of the master scheduling process. The additional detail simulated typically includes testing resources for an expanded number of variables, including product mix, a more detailed simulation of resources, and specific days or weeks. Detailed capacity planning is commonly performed more frequently than once a month, usually weekly or sometimes even daily.

        蘇珊舉起手來(lái)。“如果這只是粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃，那么何時(shí)執(zhí)行更詳細(xì)的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃？“諾蘭告訴小組詳細(xì)的產(chǎn)能計(jì)劃通常作為主計(jì)劃流程的一部分執(zhí)行。模擬的額外細(xì)節(jié)通常包括擴(kuò)展變量數(shù)量的測(cè)試資源，包括產(chǎn)品組合、更詳細(xì)的資源模擬以及特定的天數(shù)或周數(shù)。細(xì)產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃通常每月執(zhí)行一次以上，通常每周甚至每天執(zhí)行一次。

        Nolan stops and surveys the room. He wants to make sure that the group understands the differences between rough-cut capacity planning and detailed capacity planning. He explains that for sales and operations planning, rough-cut capacity planning is performed monthly and at an aggregate level. For example, rough-cut capacity planning may simulate the demand of all product groups for the capacity of an entire work center, which may consist of three machines. In contrast, detailed capacity planning may simulate each machine in that same work center.

        諾蘭停下來(lái)等問(wèn)題。他希望確保小組了解粗產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃和細(xì)產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃之間的差異。他解釋說(shuō)，對(duì)于銷(xiāo)售和運(yùn)營(yíng)計(jì)劃，粗略的產(chǎn)能計(jì)劃每月執(zhí)行一次，并在總水平上執(zhí)行。例如，粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃可以模擬所有產(chǎn)品組對(duì)整個(gè)工作中心產(chǎn)能的需求，該工作中心可能由三臺(tái)機(jī)器組成。相反，細(xì)產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃可以模擬同一個(gè)工作中心中的每臺(tái)機(jī)器。

        Nolan clicks the mouse to advance to the next slide (Figure 21). “Here is an example of a rough-cut capacity planning presentation for one resource,” he says. The vertical columns represent requirements for the capacity in time periods. The bottom line represents demonstrated capacity. The middle line represents planned capacity, and the top line represents maximum capacity. Nolan

        單擊鼠標(biāo)前進(jìn)到下一張幻燈片（圖21）。他說(shuō)：“這是一個(gè)針對(duì)一種資源的粗產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃演示的例子。”垂直列表示時(shí)間段內(nèi)的容量要求。底線代表展示的能力。中間一行表示計(jì)劃的能力，頂一行表示最大容量。

        The power of rough-cut capacity planning is its ability to demonstrate whether the resources are ‘sized’ correctly to support what we chose to do in the marketplace,”

        “粗略的產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃的作用在于，它能夠證明資源規(guī)模是否正確，以支持我們?cè)谑袌?chǎng)上選擇的做法?！?/p>

        Nolan comments. “It not only identifies problems of projected capability shortages, but it also identifies opportunities where there is projected capacity available. For master scheduling, additional detailed capacity simulations may be required to ensure that the detailed schedule is feasible and can be supported by the company resources.”

        諾蘭評(píng)論?！八粌H搞清了預(yù)測(cè)能力短缺的問(wèn)題，而且還搞清了存在預(yù)測(cè)能力可用的機(jī)會(huì)。對(duì)于主計(jì)劃，可能需要進(jìn)行額外的細(xì)產(chǎn)能模擬，以確保詳細(xì)計(jì)劃可行，并得到公司資源的支持?！?/p>

        Nolan looks at Jim, Guy, and Susan. He tells them that two books are required reading: Gaining Control by James Correll and Norris Edson and Master Scheduling by John Proud.

        諾蘭看著吉姆、蓋伊和蘇珊。他告訴他們要閱讀兩本書(shū)：由詹姆斯·科雷爾和諾里斯·埃德森寫(xiě)的《獲得控制》，約翰·普勞德寫(xiě)的《主排產(chǎn)計(jì)劃》。

        Jim Simpson raises his hand. “What about inventory and customer lead times? Are they considered in the supply planning process?”

        吉姆·辛普森舉起手來(lái)?！皫?kù)存和客戶交貨時(shí)間怎么辦？在供應(yīng)計(jì)劃過(guò)程中是否考慮這些因素？“

        “Yes, they are,” Nolan replies. “In previous sales and operations planning cycles, you will set targets for inventory and customer lead times by product line or product group. The demand planning process could request changes in those targets along with their updated demand plan, or request for product. The load on key resources includes meeting inventory and lead time targets.”

        “要，是要考慮的，”諾蘭回答?！霸谝郧暗匿N(xiāo)售和運(yùn)營(yíng)計(jì)劃周期中，將按產(chǎn)品線或產(chǎn)品組設(shè)置庫(kù)存和客戶交貨期的目標(biāo)。需求計(jì)劃過(guò)程可以請(qǐng)求更改這些目標(biāo)及其更新的需求計(jì)劃，或者請(qǐng)求產(chǎn)品。關(guān)鍵資源的負(fù)擔(dān)包括滿足庫(kù)存和交貨期目標(biāo)?！?/p>

        He explains that in response to requests for changes in inventory and lead time targets as well as the updated demand plan, the supply organization develops a volume production plan by month. This plan should (1) satisfy customer delivery requirements, or shipments; (2) conform as closely as possible to inventory targets; and (3) meet as closely as possible customer lead-time targets. To achieve all three aims requires tactics that address how much inventory is required to support the desired customer lead-time targets. “The process for determining these tactics frequently is called ‘where to meet the customer,’” Nolan says.

        他解釋說(shuō)，為了響應(yīng)庫(kù)存和交貨期目標(biāo)以及更新的需求計(jì)劃的變更要求，供應(yīng)部門(mén)按月制定批量生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。該計(jì)劃應(yīng)（1）滿足客戶交貨要求或出貨；（2）盡可能接近庫(kù)存目標(biāo)；（3）盡可能接近客戶交貨期目標(biāo)。要實(shí)現(xiàn)這三個(gè)目標(biāo)，需要策略來(lái)解決支持所需客戶提前期目標(biāo)所需的庫(kù)存量。諾蘭說(shuō)：“確定這些策略的過(guò)程經(jīng)常被稱(chēng)為‘在哪里會(huì)見(jiàn)客戶’?！?/p>

        He further explains that determining the tactics is a key element of implementing a combined marketing–manufacturing strategy. It also is necessary for effective master scheduling.

        他進(jìn)一步解釋說(shuō)，確定策略是實(shí)施聯(lián)合營(yíng)銷(xiāo)-制造戰(zhàn)略的關(guān)鍵要素。有效的主調(diào)度也是必要的。

        “This could be the subject of another class,” Nolan tells the group, “and we will have much discussion on inventory and lead time tactics as we work with you to develop your sales and operations planning process. For now, let’s just acknowledge that we must decide what our tactics will be and set targets accordingly.”

        “這可能是另一個(gè)課程的主題，”諾蘭告訴小組，“在我們與你們合作開(kāi)發(fā)銷(xiāo)售和運(yùn)營(yíng)計(jì)劃流程時(shí)，我們將對(duì)庫(kù)存和交貨期策略進(jìn)行大量討論?，F(xiàn)在，我們承認(rèn)，我們必須決定我們的戰(zhàn)術(shù)，并相應(yīng)地設(shè)定目標(biāo)?！?/p>

        Susan raises her hand. “Before we move on, doesn’t this whole conversation imply that the production plan could be different from the backlog of customer orders? Also, couldn’t the production plan be different from what is planned to be sold?”

        蘇珊舉起手來(lái)?！霸谖覀兝^續(xù)之前，整個(gè)對(duì)話是否意味著生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃可能與客戶訂單積壓有所不同？另外，生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃和銷(xiāo)售計(jì)劃有什么不同嗎？”

        Mark admires Susan’s approach. She already knows the answers to the questions she has asked, but she wants everyone else to hear the answers from an industry expert. She has some points to make, and she is going to let Nolan make them for her. “You’re correct, Susan,” Nolan replies. “We call it the decoupling of demand and supply.” He explains that, stated simply, decoupling of demand and supply involves choosing to produce at a rate different than the shipment rate or the bookings rate. To the extent that these rates are different, either inventory or customer lead time (backlog), or both, will need to be varied.

        馬克贊賞蘇珊的舉動(dòng)。她已經(jīng)知道了她所問(wèn)問(wèn)題的答案，但她希望其他人都能聽(tīng)到一位行業(yè)專(zhuān)家的答案。她有一些要點(diǎn)要講，她要讓諾蘭為她講。“你說(shuō)得對(duì)，蘇珊，”諾蘭回答?！拔覀兎Q(chēng)之為供需分離?！彼忉屨f(shuō)，簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，供需分離涉及選擇以不同于出貨率或預(yù)訂率的速度生產(chǎn)。如果這些比率不同，庫(kù)存或客戶提前期（積壓）或兩者都需要改變。

        “The principle of decoupling demand and supply gives the supply side of the business improved control over two of the three knobs — the time knob, or schedule, and the resource knob, or people, equipment, etc.,” Nolan says. “Even though the production plan is different from the customer order backlog when demand and supply are decoupled, the production plan still must support current orders on the books, or backlog, and the anticipated demand.”

        諾蘭說(shuō)：“將需求和供應(yīng)分離的原則使企業(yè)的供應(yīng)部門(mén)能夠更好地控制三個(gè)旋鈕中的兩個(gè)——時(shí)間旋鈕或者說(shuō)時(shí)間表，以及資源旋鈕，或者人、設(shè)備等?！薄凹词股a(chǎn)計(jì)劃不同于需求和供應(yīng)分離時(shí)的客戶訂單積壓，生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃仍然必須支持帳面上的當(dāng)前訂單或積壓以及預(yù)期需求?！?/p>

        Nolan displays the next slide in his presentation (Figure 22). He asks the group to consider the point made by the graphic. It is a reality that demand fluctuates. It is also a reality that a level production schedule is most cost effective. Decoupling demand and supply enables companies not to force demand to conform to a level production schedule. It also gives the manufacturing function the ability to produce more cost effectively.

        諾蘭在他的PPT中放了下一張幻燈片（圖22）。他要求小組考慮圖片中的重點(diǎn)。需求波動(dòng)是現(xiàn)實(shí)。事實(shí)上，水平生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃最具成本效益。將需求和供應(yīng)分離使企業(yè)不必強(qiáng)迫需求符合水平生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。它還為制造功能提供了更具成本效益的生產(chǎn)能力。