當前的供應鏈問題更加容易吸引我們的注意力，我們很多時候會發(fā)現，為了解決當下問題而發(fā)起的改善項目，等到完成項目后，發(fā)現整個世界又變化了。而這些變化中，有一些情況又似乎曾經出現在我們的討論中。對于長遠的未來，我們難以準確預測，這也不現實。我們要做的是為多種可能未來做好相應的預案。

殼牌公司通過熟練運用“情景規(guī)劃法”，使得其在1973年至1974年冬季OPEC（石油輸出國組織）宣布石油禁運政策時，殼牌有良好的準備，成為唯一一家能夠抵擋這次危機的大石油公司。從此，殼牌公司從世界七大石油公司中最小的一個，一躍成為世界第二大石油公司。

無獨有偶，在1986年石油價格崩落前夕，殼牌情景規(guī)劃小組又一次預先指出了這種可能性，因此殼牌并沒有效仿其他各大石油公司在價格崩潰之前收購其他的石油公司和油田擴大生產，而是在價格崩落之后，花35億美元購買了大量油田，這一舉措為殼牌鎖定了20余年的價格優(yōu)勢。

情景規(guī)劃法是一套在高度不確定的環(huán)境中幫助企業(yè)進行高瞻遠矚的方法，它不僅能夠幫助決策者進行一些特定的決策，同時也使得決策者對需要變革的信號更為敏感。

下面一段視頻，將有助于我們理解這一工具。

*視頻版權歸MIT所有

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Planning is a complicated activity.

計劃是一項復雜的活動。

It requires an organization to make its best estimate of what the future will be.

它需要一個組織對未來做出最好的估計。

At any point in time, all the planners have to work with is what happened in the past.

在任何時候，所有的計劃人員都必須與過去發(fā)生的事情一起工作。

They face the challenge of translating this knowledge into a useful forecast of the future.

他們面臨著將這些知識轉化為對未來有用預測的挑戰(zhàn)。

For shorter planning horizons, most widely used forecasting methods such as time series analysis or regression use the most recent history to project into the future.

對于較短的規(guī)劃范圍，最廣泛使用的預測方法（如時間序列分析或回歸）使用最新的歷史數據來預測未來。

This is like boxing where planners assume the current trends and conditions will continue into the foreseeable future.

這就像拳擊一樣，計劃人員假定當前的趨勢和條件將在可預見的未來繼續(xù)下去。

For relatively short periods, like a month, a quarter, or a year or two, it is usually OK to assume that the near future will be similar to the recent past.

對于相對較短的時期，如一個月、一個季度或一兩年，通?？梢约俣ń诘奈磥砼c近期的過去類似。

These traditional methods, however, do not perform as well for longer term horizons-- 10, 20, 30 years out or more.

然而，這些傳統(tǒng)方法在長期范圍內（10年、20年、30年或更長時間）的表現并不好。

The question is, how should we plan over these long time frames?

問題是，我們應該如何規(guī)劃這些長期框架？

Using traditional methods over a long planning horizon will only lead to a longer projection of the current conditions and trends.

在長期規(guī)劃中使用傳統(tǒng)方法只會導致對當前條件和趨勢的長期預測。

Over a longer period of time, current trends simply will not hold.

但是在較長的一段時間內，當前的趨勢根本無法保持。

Step changes and unforeseen events will occur.

步調變化和不可預見的事件將發(fā)生。

Natural disasters, political unrest, economic upheavals,technological innovations, any one of these can cause tremendous changes.

自然災害、政治動亂、經濟動蕩、技術革新，這些都會造成巨大的變化。

Traditional forecasting methods are simply not designed to handle these unforeseen step changes.

傳統(tǒng)的預測方法根本不能用來處理這些不可預見的步驟變化。

This brings us back to the problem of how to make long-term plans.

這使我們回到了如何制定長期計劃的問題上。

Obviously, boxing or extending the current trends does not make sense for a long-term horizon.

顯然，拳擊或擴展當前的趨勢對于長期的前景來說是沒有意義的。

For these long-range plans, traditional forecasting techniques are like throwing darts at a board.

對于這些長期計劃來說，傳統(tǒng)的預測技術就像是向棋盤投擲飛鏢。

Fortunately, there is a different approach called scenario planning.

幸運的是，有一種稱為場景規(guī)劃的不同方法。

Instead of trying to predict the one future that will occur, it might make sense to consider multiple possible futures all at once.

與其試圖預測將要發(fā)生的一個未來，不如同時考慮多個可能的未來。

Scenario planning is based on the idea that organizations are better at preparing than they are at predicting.

場景規(guī)劃是基于這樣一個理念：組織比預測更擅長準備。

If I tell an organization exactly what the future will be like, they can usually do a great job preparing for it.

如果我告訴一個組織未來會是什么樣子，他們通常會做好準備。

Scenario planning is a way to prepare for multiple potential futures.

場景規(guī)劃是為多個潛在的未來做準備的一種方法。

This is more like judo.

這更像柔道。

Instead of boxing or projecting forward to a fixed future based on the recent past, planners prepare to respond to any one of several possible futures.

規(guī)劃者們準備應對幾種可能的未來中的任何一種，而不是根據最近的過去進行拳擊或預測一個固定的未來。

They do this by answering the question, what should I be doing today given that this particular future is going to happen?

他們通過回答這個問題來做到這一點，考慮到這個特殊的未來將會發(fā)生，我今天應該做什么？

In scenario planning, it is key to keep in mind that each future we choose is just one potential future out of many.

在場景規(guī)劃中，關鍵是要記住，我們選擇的每一個未來都只是眾多未來中的一個潛在未來。

We do not seek to predict exactly which future will come to pass because there are an infinite number of potential, possible, and plausible futures out there.

我們并不試圖準確預測未來會發(fā)生什么，因為未來有無限多的潛在的、可能的和可信的未來。

Because it is impossible to explore all of them, we must create a handful of plausible, alternative futures that together capture the most relevant uncertainties and driving factors.

因為不可能探索所有這些因素，我們必須創(chuàng)造一些合理的、可替代的未來，共同捕捉最相關的不確定性和驅動因素。

Think of these as describing the potential, feasible region for the future.

把這些看作是描述未來潛在的、可行的區(qū)域。

When we look forward from the present, we can't tell in which direction we will end up moving, but by carefully designing potential scenarios, a lot of ground can be covered.

當我們從現在開始展望的時候，我們不知道我們會朝哪個方向前進，但是通過仔細設計潛在的場景，我們可以覆蓋很多領域。

In scenario planning, there is no need to predict specific events.

在場景規(guī)劃中，不需要預測特定事件。

It is more important to identify the smaller number of relevant effects that these events can trigger.

更重要的是要確定這些事件能夠觸發(fā)的相關影響的數量較少。

For example, for a firm that sources material from a specific region of the world, any number of events in that region-- an earthquake, a pandemic, economic collapse, or an industrial disaster-- will all have the same effect of reducing the flow of product from it.

例如，對于一家從世界某一特定地區(qū)采購材料的公司來說，該地區(qū)發(fā)生的任何事件——地震、流行病、經濟崩潰或工業(yè)災難——都將具有減少產品流動的相同效果。

There's no need to predict all of these events when all they do is shape a handful of important effects.

沒有必要預測所有這些事件，因為它們所做的只是形成一些重要的影響。

In the end, this offers a real benefit for planners. Scenario planning allows them to replace the futile job of predicting future events with a more feasible task of preparing their organizations to face the most relevant effects.

最后，這為規(guī)劃者提供了真正的好處。場景規(guī)劃允許他們用一項更可行的任務來取代預測未來事件的無用工作，即讓他們的組織準備面對最相關的影響。